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Marketing News & Analysis

Ahead of the Trend - Never Miss Opportunities

The GBP/USD hovers near multi-month lows and appears fragile around 1.2200 under a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Published at 09-26-2023

GBP/USD faces selling pressure near the 1.2200 mark as it enters its fourth consecutive week of losses. The Bank of England (BoE) has decided to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at a 15-year high of 5.25%, halting a streak of 14 consecutive rate hikes since December 2021. This could potentially weigh on the GBP/USD exchange rate. The GBP/USD currency pair is near a multi-month low, currently trading around 1.2220. Despite a bearish technical outlook, fundamental factors support the continuation of the downtrend established over the past two months. Additionally, robust U.S. macroeconomic data favors the prospect of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, which boosts U.S. Treasury bond yields and strengthens the U.S. dollar. The yield on the two-year U.S. government bond, sensitive to interest rate changes, has reached a 17-year high, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has exceeded the 4.50% level for the first time since 2007. Furthermore, the unexpected pause in rate hikes by the Bank of England last week is another factor weighing on the GBP/USD pair.


The UK central bank's decision to maintain the main policy rate at a 15-year high of 5.25% comes amid signs of slowing inflation and economic growth. This supports the possibility of further depreciation in the GBP/USD exchange rate, although the extremely oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has restrained bearish traders from further selling. Therefore, traders may opt to wait for consolidation or a modest rebound before considering additional downward movements.


There are no significant market-moving economic data releases from the UK on Tuesday, leaving the GBP/USD exchange rate susceptible to USD price dynamics. In the early North American session, traders will look to the U.S. economic calendar, which includes the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, New Home Sales data, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, to identify short-term trading opportunities.

In a rising interest rate environment, the gold price still remains subdued.

Published at 09-26-2023

In the backdrop of rising interest rate prospects, the price of gold continues to remain lackluster, and it appears susceptible to extending its downward trajectory. The pressure on gold prices stems primarily from the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, which continues to push up yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. Simultaneously, the U.S. dollar has maintained its strength throughout the year, resulting in capital outflows from the XAU/USD market.


On Tuesday, for the second consecutive day, gold prices faced selling pressure, marking the fifth day of declines in the past six days and reaching a one-and-a-half-week low during the Asian trading session. Currently, XAU/USD is trading slightly below $1,915, with a daily decline of over 0.10%. This decline is influenced by the increasing acceptance in the market that the Federal Reserve will sustain higher interest rates for a longer period, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold. In fact, the Federal Reserve issued a warning last week, suggesting that persistently high inflation in the United States could trigger at least one more interest rate hike before the end of this year. Furthermore, the majority of Federal Reserve policymakers currently anticipate only two rate cuts in 2024, down from the earlier projection of four cuts.


Meanwhile, as U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the U.S. dollar touched a 10-month high on Monday, exerting additional downward pressure on gold prices. Anticipation of forthcoming resilient U.S. macroeconomic data and hawkish comments from influential Federal Reserve officials suggest that the central bank will continue its monetary tightening. This, in turn, has led to prolonged selling in the U.S. fixed-income market, pushing yields on the interest rate-sensitive two-year U.S. government bonds to their highest level in 17 years. Furthermore, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to the 4.50% threshold for the first time since 2006, further bolstering the U.S. dollar and confirming the bleak outlook for the precious yellow metal. Nevertheless, the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown may mitigate potential losses.

Fed Hawks: Kashkari Says "Another Rate Hike This Year," Strong Dollar Continues.

Published at 09-26-2023

Neel Kashkari, a Federal Reserve official, stated, "I am one of the Federal Reserve policymakers expecting another rate hike this year." He believes that there is a need to address inflation in the service sector and expresses confidence that the Fed can restore the inflation rate to 2%. Despite the Fed's prediction last week of a policy rate of at least 5.1% by the end of 2024, interest rate futures contracts reflect lower levels, raising doubts about Fed Chair Powell's policy vision.


Kashkari also mentioned that the impact of the balance sheet runoff may not have fully materialized yet, and a government shutdown could lead to insufficient data, necessitating the use of private data.


Furthermore, the US dollar index has risen due to these comments. The Fed's forecasts indicate that most officials expect another rate hike this year, with the policy rate likely to remain at 5.6% in the next three months. However, interest rate futures contracts suggest that the market sees only about a 50% likelihood of further rate hikes in 2023, with the policy rate reaching 4.65% by the end of next year. While there is disagreement among officials regarding the policy trajectory, loose financial conditions stimulating spending or investment could potentially reignite price pressures, making the Fed's inflation control efforts more complex.


The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, reached a peak of 7% in the summer of 2022 but dropped to 3.3% in July of this year. With non-housing service sector inflation still resilient, Fed officials expect inflation pressures to gradually ease, although financial markets may hold a more optimistic view.


The US dollar index has experienced a new increase due to these comments, currently trading at 106.01, with a minor change during the Asian session on Tuesday.


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