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Marketing News & Analysis

Ahead of the Trend - Never Miss Opportunities

In a rising interest rate environment, the gold price still remains subdued.

Published at 09-26-2023

In the backdrop of rising interest rate prospects, the price of gold continues to remain lackluster, and it appears susceptible to extending its downward trajectory. The pressure on gold prices stems primarily from the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, which continues to push up yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. Simultaneously, the U.S. dollar has maintained its strength throughout the year, resulting in capital outflows from the XAU/USD market.


On Tuesday, for the second consecutive day, gold prices faced selling pressure, marking the fifth day of declines in the past six days and reaching a one-and-a-half-week low during the Asian trading session. Currently, XAU/USD is trading slightly below $1,915, with a daily decline of over 0.10%. This decline is influenced by the increasing acceptance in the market that the Federal Reserve will sustain higher interest rates for a longer period, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold. In fact, the Federal Reserve issued a warning last week, suggesting that persistently high inflation in the United States could trigger at least one more interest rate hike before the end of this year. Furthermore, the majority of Federal Reserve policymakers currently anticipate only two rate cuts in 2024, down from the earlier projection of four cuts.


Meanwhile, as U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the U.S. dollar touched a 10-month high on Monday, exerting additional downward pressure on gold prices. Anticipation of forthcoming resilient U.S. macroeconomic data and hawkish comments from influential Federal Reserve officials suggest that the central bank will continue its monetary tightening. This, in turn, has led to prolonged selling in the U.S. fixed-income market, pushing yields on the interest rate-sensitive two-year U.S. government bonds to their highest level in 17 years. Furthermore, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to the 4.50% threshold for the first time since 2006, further bolstering the U.S. dollar and confirming the bleak outlook for the precious yellow metal. Nevertheless, the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown may mitigate potential losses.

Fed Hawks: Kashkari Says "Another Rate Hike This Year," Strong Dollar Continues.

Published at 09-26-2023

Neel Kashkari, a Federal Reserve official, stated, "I am one of the Federal Reserve policymakers expecting another rate hike this year." He believes that there is a need to address inflation in the service sector and expresses confidence that the Fed can restore the inflation rate to 2%. Despite the Fed's prediction last week of a policy rate of at least 5.1% by the end of 2024, interest rate futures contracts reflect lower levels, raising doubts about Fed Chair Powell's policy vision.


Kashkari also mentioned that the impact of the balance sheet runoff may not have fully materialized yet, and a government shutdown could lead to insufficient data, necessitating the use of private data.


Furthermore, the US dollar index has risen due to these comments. The Fed's forecasts indicate that most officials expect another rate hike this year, with the policy rate likely to remain at 5.6% in the next three months. However, interest rate futures contracts suggest that the market sees only about a 50% likelihood of further rate hikes in 2023, with the policy rate reaching 4.65% by the end of next year. While there is disagreement among officials regarding the policy trajectory, loose financial conditions stimulating spending or investment could potentially reignite price pressures, making the Fed's inflation control efforts more complex.


The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, reached a peak of 7% in the summer of 2022 but dropped to 3.3% in July of this year. With non-housing service sector inflation still resilient, Fed officials expect inflation pressures to gradually ease, although financial markets may hold a more optimistic view.


The US dollar index has experienced a new increase due to these comments, currently trading at 106.01, with a minor change during the Asian session on Tuesday.

Overview of Weekly Market News

Published at 09-26-2023

Last week, the Federal Reserve's decision was the most crucial factor in the market. With the release of the dot plot and a hawkish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the US dollar continued its recent strong performance, ending the week with a ten-week winning streak. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, rose by 0.19% last week, closing at 105.58, marking its tenth consecutive weekly gain and the longest upward trend in nearly a decade. On the other hand, the Bank of England unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged, putting pressure on the British pound. The Bank of Japan did not provide a clear signal of a policy shift, leading to continued depreciation pressure on the yen. Japan issued warnings about intervention in the foreign exchange market several times last week, and investors need to be cautious of intervention risk this week. Additionally, the upcoming week will see a significant amount of economic data releases in the United States, which could impact the US dollar, gold, and stocks. Key data points include US GDP and PCE inflation data.



Powell maintained a hawkish stance last week, stating that interest rates would have to remain in a restrictive range in the foreseeable future, which strengthened the US dollar. However, gold managed to resist the pressure from the strong dollar, ending the week with a slight gain of 0.06% at $1924.80.


In the coming months, global oil reserves are expected to decrease, which could help stabilize domestic fuel costs or lead to an increase in barrel prices. OPEC+ oil-producing countries continue to consider production cuts. Last week, oil prices initially rose to a 10-month high of $92.23 but ended the week down by 0.50% at $89.88.


US stocks closed lower on Friday. All three major indices recorded significant declines last week as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's policy stance, the risk of a US government shutdown, and the developments in the strike by US auto workers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) fell by 1.89% to close at 33,963.84 points, the S&P 500 index dropped 0.23% to 4,320.06 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.09% to 13,211.81 points.


Looking ahead to this week, key data points to watch include Germany's September IFO Business Climate Index, US August seasonally adjusted annualized new home sales, US September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, API and EIA crude oil inventory changes as of September 22nd, August durable goods orders in the US, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 23rd, Japan's September CPI, and the Eurozone's September CPI. Events to watch include speeches by ECB President Lagarde, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and the release of minutes from the Bank of Japan's July monetary policy meeting.


Here's an overview of important events for the week (Beijing time):


Monday (September 25th): Germany's September IFO Business Climate Index, speech by ECB President Lagarde, and speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda


Tuesday (September 26th): US August seasonally adjusted annualized new home sales, US September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, speech by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari


Wednesday (September 27th): API and EIA crude oil inventory changes in the US as of September 22nd, August durable goods orders in the US, release of minutes from the Bank of Japan's July monetary policy meeting


Thursday (September 28th): Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 23rd


Friday (September 29th): Japan's September CPI, Eurozone's September CPI




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